CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 17/03 - 06Z THU 18/03 2004
ISSUED: 16/03 19:08Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across Iberian Peninsula

SYNOPSIS

Northern branch of the frontal zone forms a broad ridge over western and central Europe. Embedded short-wave trough is analyzed over northeastern Europe. Over southern Europe ... flow forms an omega pattern with cold cores over the Iberian Peninsula and eastern Mediterranean. Warm airmass over western Europe is advected northeastward ahead of frontal boundary extending from northwestern Spain to Denmark tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

...Iberian Peninsula...
In the range of the upper trough ... some isolated thunderstorms have formed over the Iberian Peninsula. Tomorrow ... quite similar scenario is expected. Slightly increasing low-level moisture and rather steep lapse rates at mid levels as indicated by today's soundings may be sufficient for weak CAPE due to diurnal insolation. However ... cap should inhibit initiation over most places. If thunderstorms form ... strong wind gusts will be possible due to very dry mid-level layers.

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